Before you apply a Custom promotion on date ranges in Calendar → Price settings, see the promo nightly (from your 60-day median), net after the host fee, merchandising thresholds (callout / strikethrough / email), and a break-even booking probability vs empty nights or full price. Free, no signup, runs in your browser. Distinct from New Listing Promo (launch, <3 bookings), Special offer (Messages Subtotal), early-bird / last-minute, and NRO. Rules last checked against Airbnb Help 2026-10-03.
1 · Stay economics
Help 2719 / 2721 / Combining discounts: Airbnb prices a custom promotion off your 60-day median nightly for each date — not necessarily today’s calendar price. Enter your median (or your best estimate from calendar history). Current nightly is for comparison only. Cleaning is undiscounted. Default fee 15.5% single fee.
2 · Custom promotion %
Help 2982: Calendar → Price settings → Promotions → Custom promotion → dates → discount. Resource “Controlling your pricing”: custom promo of 15%+ gets a special listing/search callout; general merchandising also notes 1%+ line-item, 10%+ strikethrough, 20%+ possible email feature. Priority stack: New listing → Custom → LOS → early-bird → last-minute (only one discount per night).
3 · Your booking-probability guesses (optional)
Enter your own guesses from similar date ranges — defaults are illustrative only, not Airbnb benchmarks. Expected-net math uses these; leave them if you only want discount / payout / callout arithmetic.
4 · Results
Break-even promo booking probability (to beat “no promo”) = your full-price P × (full net ÷ promo net), when promo net > 0. Arithmetic on your inputs — not a booking or earnings forecast.
Custom promotion = a date-range % off you set in Calendar → Price settings → Promotions (Help 2982). It is not New Listing Promotion, not a Messages special offer, and not NRO.
60-day median = the middle of the nightly prices you set for that date over the prior 60 days; Airbnb uses it to compute the discounted price and strikethrough (Help 2719 / 2721).
Promo nightly = median × (1 − your promo %).
Net if booked = payout after host fee on (promo room + cleaning).
Discount cost = full-median net − promo net.
Merchandising flags = host checklist against Airbnb’s published thresholds (1% / 10% / 15% custom callout / 20%). Display can vary by geography; Airbnb’s dashboard wins.
Break-even promo P = full P × (full net ÷ promo net). If your promo booking probability is above that, expected net with the promo beats expected net without it on these inputs.
Not modelled: eligibility gates (Help 2720: ≥3 bookings, 1 in past 365 days, unblocked 28/60 days, <90 days out, ≤50% of nights/month, no regular weekly/monthly discounts on listing, high-price cap vs highest booked), guest fees/taxes, ranking, demand elasticity, or stacking with NRO. Not tax, legal, or listing advice. No income promised. Airbnb’s terms win.
Questions
How is a custom promotion different from New Listing Promo?
New Listing Promotion is a fixed ~20% launch discount for listings with fewer than 3 bookings (and Smart Pricing off). Custom promotion is a date-range % you choose on eligible established listings (Help 2720 requires at least 3 bookings). In Airbnb’s priority list, New Listing Promo outranks Custom when both could apply.
Why median instead of today’s calendar price?
Help 2719 / 2721 and Combining discounts: when you create a custom promotion, Airbnb calculates the discount from the 60-day median for that date. If today’s price differs from the median, the guest-facing discounted price still follows the median math.
What discount % gets a search callout?
Airbnb’s “Controlling your pricing” resource: custom promotions of 15% or more get a special callout on the listing / in search. Separately, 10%+ often shows strikethrough and 20%+ may appear in area emails — still subject to Airbnb’s merchandising rules and geography.
Do you promise more bookings if I run a promo?
No. This page only does payout, threshold, and break-even-probability arithmetic on the numbers you enter. Your P(book) fields are your guesses, not Airbnb data.
Is my data sent anywhere?
No. The arithmetic runs in your browser; nothing you type is transmitted or stored.