Compare net contribution at full ADR vs early-bird vs last-minute discounts, see which discount Airbnb’s priority stack would pick for a booking lead time, and compute a break-even fill probability for holding at full price. Free, no signup, runs in your browser. Discount rules last checked against Airbnb’s pages on 2026-10-03.
1 · Stay economics
Net contribution = Airbnb payout on (nights × ADR − room discount + cleaning) − true turnover. Discount applies to accommodation only; cleaning is undiscounted (same engine as our other tools). Default host fee 15.5% single fee.
2 · Lead-time discounts
Airbnb: early-bird for bookings 1–24 months before check-in; last-minute for bookings 1–28 days before check-in (Resource Center). Only one discount applies per night — priority: new listing → custom promo → length-of-stay → early-bird → last-minute (Resource Center “Combining discounts”). Set LOS % to 0 to ignore. This tool does not model custom/new-listing promos.
3 · Side-by-side net
4 · Hold vs discount break-even
Host estimate only. Break-even P = netdiscounted ÷ netfull. If your fill probability at full price is below that, expected net of a certain discounted booking is higher than gambling on a full-price fill — arithmetic, not a forecast.
Applied discount (stack) = for the lead days you enter, which single discount Airbnb’s published priority would select among LOS / early-bird / last-minute (custom & new-listing promos not modelled). Early-bird and last-minute do not stack with each other.
Effective ADR = (room after discount) ÷ nights.
Net contribution = host payout after fee − one true turnover.
Break-even fill P = net at the applied discount ÷ net at full price. Below that P, a certain discounted booking beats the expected value of waiting for full price (your estimate).
Callouts = Airbnb: early-bird ≥3% can show a listing callout; last-minute ≥10% can show strikethrough; discounts ≥10% often show strikethrough in search; ≥20% may appear in Airbnb emails (Resource Center). UI facts only — not ranking guarantees.
Not modelled: Smart Pricing (last-minute unavailable when on), 60-day median eligibility for last-minute/custom, taxes, guest fees, search rank, or occupancy forecasts. No invented “% of revenue lost” claims from third-party blogs.
Not tax, legal, or listing-optimization advice.
Questions
What is an early-bird vs last-minute discount?
Airbnb Resource Center: early-bird reduces price for bookings made 1–24 months before check-in; last-minute for bookings 1–28 days before check-in. Last-minute isn’t available when Smart Pricing is on (sources 1–2).
Do early-bird and last-minute stack?
No for the same night under Airbnb’s published priority list. Only one discount applies; early-bird outranks last-minute; length-of-stay outranks both (source 3). Non-refundable 10% can apply after other discounts — not modelled here.
Why does 10% (or 3%) matter?
Airbnb says early-bird discounts of 3%+ can show a callout; last-minute of 10%+ can show a markdown/strikethrough; generally 10%+ shows strikethrough in search and 20%+ may feature in emails (source 1). This tool only flags those UI thresholds.
Is my data sent anywhere?
No. The arithmetic runs in your browser; nothing you type is transmitted or stored.