See when Airbnb’s optional non-refundable discount (typically 10% off the nightly price) beats your standard cancellation policy on expected payout — using your cancel rate and timing. Free, no signup, runs in your browser. Distinct from our cancellation-policy EV tool (that models host-keep % by policy; this models the discount vs keep-on-cancel tradeoff). Rules last checked against Airbnb Help 2026-10-03.
1 · Booking
Discount applies to the nightly / room price only — not cleaning (Airbnb Combining discounts resource). Default fee 15.5% single fee.
2 · Non-refundable option
Help 2600: typically 10% off the base price (everywhere but China); guest sees standard vs non-refundable at checkout; if they cancel after any free-cancel window, you keep the entire payout for nights booked. Eligibility: checkout within 60 days; not pre-approval / special offer. NRO stacks after other discounts (Combining discounts).
3 · Standard policy to compare
Host-keep bands match Help 475 short-stay rules (same table as our cancel-policy tool), for a pre-check-in cancel after the 24-hour grace. Enter your own cancel rate from earnings history — the 8% default is illustrative only, not a benchmark.
4 · Results
Break-even cancel rate = (cost of discount) ÷ (loss on a cancelled booking under your standard policy). NRO has the higher expected payout only when your cancel rate is above that break-even. Arithmetic on your inputs — not a booking or earnings forecast.
Non-refundable option = optional discount (typically 10%) guests can choose at checkout for a stricter cancel outcome; you keep the full payout if they cancel after free-cancel windows (Help 2600).
Discount cost = net payout at standard ADR − net payout at NRO discounted ADR (same nights, cleaning, fee).
Loss on a cancelled booking = net if stay completes under standard − net if guest cancels at your timing under that policy (Help 475 keep band × complete payout).
Break-even cancel rate = discount cost ÷ loss on cancel. Above it, NRO’s expected payout wins on these inputs; at or below, standard wins.
Expected net = (1 − your cancel rate) × complete payout + cancel rate × cancel payout (standard), vs always-complete NRO payout (Help 2600 keep-on-cancel).
Not modelled: whether NRO guests cancel less often, demand lift from the cheaper rate, rebooking of cancelled nights, 24h grace / Major Disruptive Event refunds, taxes, guest fees, Strict/Super Strict invitation-only, monthly 28+ stays, or China-specific discount rules.
Not tax, legal, or listing-optimization advice. No income or earnings are promised. Airbnb’s terms win.
Questions
How is this different from the cancellation-policy calculator?
That tool compares host-keep under Flexible / Moderate / Limited / Firm for one cancel timing. This tool asks whether offering the optional non-refundable discount is worth the cut, given your cancel rate — the tradeoff Help 2600 describes.
Why is the default discount 10%?
Airbnb Help 2600 says the discount is typically 10% off the base price (everywhere but China). Enter whatever % you would actually set (Host Tools documents 0–99%).
Does the non-refundable discount stack with weekly or early-bird discounts?
Yes, differently from other stack rules: the Combining discounts resource says the non-refundable discount applies to your nightly price after other discounts are calculated. This page models NRO off your entered ADR only — if you already run another discount, lower the ADR input to that post-discount nightly.
Do you promise more bookings or fewer cancellations?
No. This page only does payout arithmetic on the numbers you enter. It does not model guest choice, occupancy, or ranking.
Is my data sent anywhere?
No. The arithmetic runs in your browser; nothing you type is transmitted or stored.