Before you tap Special offer in a guest message thread, see the implied discount %, net after the host fee, and the break-even booking probability vs hoping they book at your calendar price — or vs empty nights. Free, no signup, runs in your browser. Distinct from calendar discounts (NRO, New Listing Promo, early-bird / last-minute, LOS). Rules last checked against Airbnb Help 2026-10-03.
1 · Calendar price for these dates
Help 35: the special-offer Subtotal should cover all nights and include cleaning / extra-guest fees. Do not include Airbnb service fees or security deposits in that Subtotal — Airbnb adds those separately for the guest. Default fee 15.5% single fee.
2 · Special offer you would send
This is the host-entered total for the stay (nights + cleaning), not a nightly rate. Guest has 24 hours to accept; acceptance confirms the reservation automatically (Help 35 / 128).
3 · Your booking-probability guesses (optional)
Enter your own guesses from similar inquiries — defaults are illustrative only, not Airbnb benchmarks. Expected-net math uses these; leave them if you only want discount / payout arithmetic.
4 · Results
Break-even offer booking probability (to beat “no offer”) = your no-offer P × (calendar net ÷ offer net), when offer net > 0. Arithmetic on your inputs — not a booking or earnings forecast.
Special offer = a custom Subtotal you send in a message thread to a guest who contacted you before booking or submitting a trip request (Help 35). It is not a calendar discount and is not the non-refundable option.
Calendar subtotal = nights × ADR + cleaning (same components Help 35 says the offer Subtotal should cover).
Implied discount = calendar subtotal − offer Subtotal (also as a % of calendar).
Net if booked = subtotal − Airbnb host fee on that subtotal (integer-cent fee engine; confirm on your earnings breakdown).
Discount cost = calendar net − offer net (what you leave on the table vs a full-price booking of the same stay).
Break-even offer P = no-offer P × (calendar net ÷ offer net). If your offer booking probability is above that, expected net with the offer beats expected net without it on these inputs.
Vs empty nights: any positive offer net beats $0 empty — the tradeoff is only vs the chance they would have booked calendar price anyway.
Not modelled: guest service fees/taxes, security deposits, Instant Book, pre-approval, changing an already-booked reservation, multi-guest race on the same dates, ranking, or demand elasticity. Not tax, legal, or listing advice. No income promised. Airbnb’s terms win.
Questions
How is a special offer different from New Listing Promo, NRO, or early-bird?
Those are calendar / checkout discounts applied by Airbnb’s discount stack. A special offer is a one-off custom Subtotal you send to a specific guest in Messages (Help 35). Airbnb also notes that the non-refundable option is not available on pre-approval / special offer paths (Help 2600) — so this tool does not mix NRO math in.
What should I type in the Subtotal field on Airbnb?
Help 35: include all nights and additional charges like cleaning; do not include service fees or security deposits. For stays over 28 days you can choose a total price or a monthly rate — this page is aimed at short stays under 28 nights.
Does accepting the offer confirm the reservation?
Yes. Help 35 / 128: the guest has 24 hours; if they accept, the reservation is automatically confirmed. Keep the calendar open and decline conflicting pending requests first.
Do you promise more bookings if I discount?
No. This page only does payout and break-even-probability arithmetic on the numbers you enter. Your P(book) fields are your guesses, not Airbnb data.
Is my data sent anywhere?
No. The arithmetic runs in your browser; nothing you type is transmitted or stored.